Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Rome (Agenzia Fides) – The negative facts on the progress of the world economy are as follows: the Gross Domestic Product worldwide is shrinking for the first time since the end of World War II, according to information released by the International Monetary Fund, in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), during the encounter held with Ministers of Finance and leaders of the central banks of 53 African nations. The EPSCO Council at the European Spring Meeting (Council for Employment, Social Politics, Health, and Consumerism) launched an alert on unemployment in Europe: by 2010, there will be another 6 million unemployed and the financial crisis will have heavy consequences on the world economy throughout 2009. In the meantime, the World Bank – in a document drafted in light of the upcoming G20 of economic ministers and central bank managers – says that both world trade and industrial production will suffer a heavy drop this year.
The recession is worldwide, however the economic crisis will show its worst effects among the poorer populations on the planet, affecting the most vulnerable among them. This is the prediction made in a report from UNESCO, presented in recent days. Over 390 million people from sub-Saharan Africa, who live in conditions of extreme poverty, will pay 18 billion dollars, 46 dollars per person, in a growth rate that will hit nearly zero in 2009, according to predictions. According to the World Bank, developing countries could rack up a financial deficit between 270-700 billion dollars. It is a statistice that far surpasses that of the wealthier nations. UNESCO predicts a loss of 20% of the per capita income among the most desperate populations of Africa.
One particularly worrisome aspect of the economic crisis, according to the UN, is the increase in the infant mortality rate, which could have a heavy impact on the development of future generations. The phenomenon, which is mainly being caused by malnutrition, could affect between 200,000-400,000 children. It could also have effects on their cognitive skills. The recession will have a negative impact on cognitive capacity of millions of them. The recession will have negative effects on the development goals that have been determined by the international community, and the strongest fiscal reduction would obviously effect those countries still far from meeting these goals. Another factor weighing heavily on the poorer nations is their weak financial systems. The UN estimates that 43 of 48 low-income countries are not prepared to adopt fiscal policies in favor of the weakest among the population. Of the 43 above mentioned, 27 do not have room for fiscal maneuvering. Among them are: Mozambique, Ethiopia, Mali, Senegal, Rwanda, and Bangladesh. Only one third of the developing nations – says the World Bank – have the necessary resources to respond to the crisis and prevent an increase in poverty.
The global crisis has come from the wealthy nations, from the lack of control over their own financial systems, however the worst repercussions will occur in developing nations and the poorest nations on the planet. The Washington Institute says that 94 out of 166 developing countries have experienced a notable decrease in growth; among the most effected sectors were construction and the manufacturing department, those which had shown the most dynamism up until now.
A greater economic commitment on the part of the northern hemisphere could alleviate the situation and avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. However, while the World Bank is asking that 0.7%-1% of fiscal plans be sent to poorer nations, the generalized tendency seems to be in the opposite direction: according to a UNESCO study, the EU is destined to reduce its economic commitments – equal to 0.56% of the GDP, from now until 2010 – due to the pessimistic predictions in terms of growth. (Mtp) (Agenzia Fides 10/3/2009)
