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Lusaka (Agenzia Fides) – Climate changes are causing a rise in infections in Africa. This is what a study published by researchers at the Spanish Carlos III Health Institute say. According to the study, the increase of 5% of cholera cases in Zambia are the result of climate changes occurring in recent years.
According to the Spanish researchers, the increase in the environmental temperature 6 weeks prior to the rainy season has increased the number of people affected by malaria to 4.9 percent.
“This is the first time that we have seen evidence of a relation between the increase in the environmental temperature and the rise in cholera cases in the sub-Saharan region,” said Miguel Angel Luque, one of the authors of the study. This relationship was also seen in a previous study on Bangladesh.
The research project, which took place in the capital city of Lusaka, between 2003 and 2006, analyzes data from three epidemics of cholera which were shown to have occurred consecutively. The results show that the climate variations, such as the rain and temperature, are linked to an increase in cholera cases that follow.
The experts affirm that the cholera has a seasonal component associated with the rainy season. The study in fact sustains that an increase of one centigrade six weeks prior to the beginning of the rainy season causes a 5.2% increase in cases of cholera in the course of an epidemic. If, in addition, there is a 50mm increase in precipitation three weeks later, there could be a 2.5% increase in malaria cases.
“The climate changes are affecting the reappearance of the contagious illnesses, especially malaria and cholera. This year, countries like Zimbabwe and Zambia are being struck by a devastating cholera epidemic associated with a pandemic operation that has affected a large portion of the continent. This process is probably linked to the increase in global warming,” said Luque.
The study performed by Spanish researchers, however, is only indicative; it does not present a model for how to concretely work to prevent the epidemics. According to the researcher, “the ideal would be to have a method of prevention, that from the beginning the increase in cases could be known ahead of time, in order to send an initial warning and advise health authorities.”
From 2001 to today, 41 cholera trouble areas have been registered in 28 countries, the majority of them being in sub-Saharan Africa.
Today, the worst cholera epidemic is that of Zimbabwe. In spite of the decrease in cases, the mortality rate continues to be high in nearly all the provinces.
In Zimbabwe, since the outbreak of the epidemic in August 2008, to mid March 2009, 91,164 cases have been registered, 4,037 of which have been fatal. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 4/5/2009)
