Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Johannesburg (Agenzia Fides) - “It seems almost certain that Jacob Zuma will win. The only uncertainty is by how many votes,” Fides was told by a missionary in Johannesburg (South Africa) where today, April 22, presidential elections begin.
The favorite in the race is Jacob Zuma, the leader of the African National Congress (ANC), the party that has led the country since 1994, the year in which Apartheid ended.
“Zuma, who is a former union leader, is a great speaker and knows how to take the crowd. Unfortunately, I think that many people vote with the heart more than the head. The follow behind the person with the most convincing rhetoric, however they do not seem interested in understanding how to confront the nation's problems,” Fides sources say.
Zuma, who just weeks ago saw the end of a long and controversial court case in which he faced charges of corruption (see Fides 7/4/2009), represents the populist majority of the ANC. He has gained control of the party by ousting former President Thabo Mbeki, who was tied to the technocratic wing, close to the industry and middle class of African origin. Zuma's opponents in the ANC have formed a new party, called COPE. “It does not seem that this new political party presents any serious worries for Zuma,” Fides sources affirmed, although Mbeki has not joined the party, several of his men have. Mbeki is somewhat a symbol of the immobility that characterized social and political life in South Africa in recent years. He made a lot of promises, but the problems continued. In fact, social injustice has increased, as well as the gap between rich and poor, while public administration has become inefficient. Thus, it is hard to believe that many votes will be cast in favor of this party, which is seen as a split-off of the elite leaders of the ANC, and not as a grassroots formation of voters.”
If the ANC captures 2/3 of the seats in Parliament, they could change the Constitution without the consensus of the other parties. “If Zuma wins a majority that allows him to change the Constitution how he wants, I am afraid that South Africa will see the dawn of a Presidential regime,” Fides sources affirmed. “The example of Zimbabwe gives a lesson to be learned, in this sense. Zuma took an even harder stance in confronting Mugabe, than Mbeki, who has been in office during the crisis in Zimbabwe. However, it seems that it was a tactic used in the struggle to kick Mbeki out of power – first, from the ANC and later, from the Presidency (Mbeki stepped down before his term had ended, after being rejected by the leaders of the ANC – see Fides 22/9/2008). Zuma is really more similar to Mugabe, than he is to Mbeki: both use rhetoric making reference to the people and the anti-colonial fight, to promote their own interests. There are many youth who support Zuma, who were small children when Apartheid ended and who say “we have fought against the racist regime.” They remind me of the members of the paramilitary groups that supported Mugabe,” Fides sources concluded. However, another qualified source has informed Fides that “Zuma's image has been misrepresented. He understands well the economic problems of the country, because he also has various contacts in the South African business world and the negative example of Mugabe is so obvious that he would not follow in his footsteps. I do not think that these elections will bring great changes to political life in South Africa.”
In February, the South African Bishops issued a Pastoral Letter (see Fides 19/2/2009) inviting the faithful to what they called the “challenges at stake” in the young South African democracy, including poverty, the widening gap between rich and poor, family instability, the increase in domestic violence and pregnancies among unwed mothers, sexual exploitation, drug and alcohol abuse, and the spread of xenophobia in the relationship with migrants and refugees. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 22/4/2009)
