AFRICA/SOUTH AFRICA - Zuma's election as leader of the party in power marks a political turning point in South Africa, but there is uncertainty with regard to which way the country will go

Pretoria (Agenzia Fides)- The ruling African National Congress has changed leadership and South Africa faces an uncertain political turning point. Jacob Zuma defeated head of state Thabo Mbeki, in elections for the party presidency yesterday 18 December at the ANC Congress held in Polokwane (see Fides 17/12/2007).
Zuma was elected with 2,329 votes while Mbeki won 1,505 votes. The result was amazing since Zuma had risked leaving the political scene for good because of a court case still not concluded, relative to his alleged involvement in a scandal connected with a major contract for the purchase of arms between South Africa and some European companies.
Despite Zuma's clear win, several local commentators expressed fear about a future split in the ANC. At the Polokwane congress a split emerged between the party's “populist” soul, incarnated by Zuma, and the more moderate “technocratic” Mbeki. The President is supported by the world of finance and industry, but he has disappointed the social sectors most affected by the chronic scarcity of infrastructures and public services.
A situation which is felt by part of the economic establishment. On the eve of the ANC Congress an Editorial in the financial daily Business Day said “ After more than a decade of Mbekism, the ANC and the country do not need another technocratic leader. What they need is a leader and a collective leadership that will be able to galvanise the broadest sections of our people to participate in making SA a better place." ”.
Should Zuma take the ANC presidency, the outcome is equally uncertain the newspaper said. "Many in the Zuma camp fear Mbeki will unleash the state against the party if he loses the race and Zuma assumes the party's presidency. In such an event, there will be a standoff between the ruling party and the state, the outcome of which could result in the undermining of democratic institutions.”.
There is fear of a game of reciprocal blackmail between a weakened head of state, disowned by his own party which has the majority in parliament , and an ANC chairman in danger of being arrested for corruption. Certain episodes in recent years have led several observers to think of a 'political' use of justice in the struggle for power.
Most of the South Africa press is of the opinion that Zuma's clear victory has fatally weakened the position of Mbeki, now a “President without a party” and “a lame duck”. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 19/12/2007 righe 33 parole 430)