AFRICA/DEMOCRATIC CONGO - ANY MOMENT NEW OUTBREAK OF WAR IN SOUTH EAST CONGO, AN ANALYSIS FOR FIDES: WHY ARE RWANDAN SOLDIERS DEPLOYING, WHY HAS RECRUITMENT OF TROOPS RESUMED HERE AT THE HEART OF THE POOREST AND RICHEST PART OF CENTRAL AFRICA?

Kinshasa (Fides Service) –Messages expressing fear of a new outbreak of war in south Kivu in the south east of Democratic Congo continue to arrive at Fides Offices. In a careful analysis sent to Fides Service, local observers say “everyone fears a new outbreak of the conflict and that the international community and MONUC will do nothing”.
According to local observers there are various signals that war may resume:
1) Some say that the Congo Rassemblement for Democracy RDC rebel group which has had control of the area for years might start the fighting in order to barter peace in Kivu in exchange for an amnesty for those involved in the assassination of President Laurent Desire Kabila or shelling of civilians.
2) Others say certain RDC hawks want to push the movement to total war in a bid to take control of the whole country.
3) A third interpretation is that it is elements outside Democratic Congo which want the war to resume not the Congolese themselves who have solved most of the disputes over ethnic representation and power sharing.
4) Lastly some point to ethnic chiefs in the north and south Kivu not satisfied with the distribution of power between the various warring parties and the government.
Opinions differ but local observers stress the fact that preparations for war are going on: recruiting of troops, endless meetings of Congolese leaders and Rwandan officials in Kigali, Goma, and Bukavu, deployment of Rwandan troops in the interior. LM (Fides Service 7/10/2003 EM lines 39 Words: 455)