AFRICA/SOMALIA - Somalia’s difficult transition to peace after last Islamic Courts Union stronghold falls

Tuesday, 2 January 2007

Mogadishu (Agenzia Fides) - The future remains uncertain for Somalia, since Government and Ethiopian troops took the last stronghold of the Union of Islamic Courts. Government troops moved into Chisimaio (500 km south of Mogadishu the capital), after the Islamic militia withdrew. Many international observers say this may be a strategic retreat on the part of the Islamic Courts, time to reorganise and then resume the offensive with guerrilla tactics.
“Confronted with the military superiority of the Ethiopian army”- a local source who wished to remain anonymous told Fides - “the troops of the Union of Islamic Courts may have decided to avoid any direct clashes as far as possible and to apply the same guerrilla tactics seen in other parts of the world from Vietnam to Afghanistan. Ever clearer appears the ghost of an Afghan scenario Afghan and the ever greater danger that the other countries in the area may be dragged into the Somali conflict”.
Another problem facing the interim government is to disarm the various militia groups still very active in the country. In the territory under their control the Islamic Courts had managed to control or drive away the warlords and guarantee public order. This explains at least partly the Somali people’s initial support to the Courts. However prevailing dogmatic and extremist positions which imposed unpopular policies such as bans on cinema and music and the sale of a popular local drug, Khat caused the Courts gradually to lose the support of a part of the people.
The international community, especially the United Nations and the African Union, is considering sending a military force formed of troops from non bordering African countries, to help the government of Somalia restore peace and order. Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi, said he wants his troops out of Somalia in a ‘few weeks’, just time to start an internal peace process.
The government of Somalia, which has promised to guarantee public order, has started talks with the warlord to agree on general disarmament of all the militia groups in the country. The Premier also promised an amnesty to Islamic Courts troops which surrender in the next three days.
Somalia is at the centre of international attention because of possible infiltration of international terrorism and for its geographical position, close to the Bab el Mandeb Straits a strategic point for international trade and the control of oil flows towards industrialised countries. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 2/1/2007 righe 37 parole 449)


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