Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Addis Ababa (Fides News Agency) – The rebel coalition announced a few days ago has gone on the offensive, and one of its main components, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has captured Mekelle airport.
On September 20, seven Ethiopian armed groups—including historic enemies who fought on opposing sides during the 2020–2022 civil war—announced the formation of an alliance aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The Ethiopian People’s Forces Alliance for Survival brings together a diverse coalition of groups from different parts of the country: from Tigray in the north to the Fano militias in Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army and other armed groups. Some of these formations have fought one another in the past, but for the time being they have set aside their differences to unite against the central government.
The alliance’s stated objective is to overthrow the federal government and establish a transitional administration. The groups involved regard Abiy Ahmed’s rule as a direct threat to the survival of their respective communities.
The government in Addis Ababa has said that the members of the alliance had been cooperating for some time with financial support from Eritrea. The conflict in Ethiopia could therefore reignite and draw in a significant part of the Federation, with possible repercussions for the wider regional balance of power.
Ethiopia is, in fact, a strategically important hinterland from which the balance of power among the countries bordering the Red Sea can be influenced. First and foremost there is Eritrea, which was already involved in the Tigray conflict. Then there is Sudan, where, according to various allegations, supplies to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are reportedly being delivered from bases in Ethiopia, and where drone attacks against Sudanese army targets may also have been launched from Ethiopian territory (see Fides, 25/8/2026).
Finally, there are Djibouti and Somaliland, the northern region of Somalia that unilaterally declared independence in 1991 and has so far been recognized only by Israel. Israel appears already to have a military facility in Somaliland and, according to an investigation by Haaretz, hosts an Eritrean opposition group in Tel Aviv.
Developments in the Ethiopian crisis are closely connected to events on the Asian side of the Red Sea, which inevitably have repercussions on the African side of this strategic maritime corridor. While Yemen’s Houthis now control access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, major and middle powers are moving to consolidate and expand their presence along the African shore.
China is expanding its military base in Djibouti, the only overseas military installation that Beijing officially acknowledges, raising concerns in France, the United States, Japan and Italy, which also maintain bases in the small but strategically important African country.
Such concerns may have prompted Washington to seek additional footholds in the region. Eritrea could be one of them. In recent days, the United States has lifted sanctions previously imposed on the Eritrean military and other entities. The decision by the Trump administration has been interpreted as an attempt to strengthen relations with Asmara.
The sanctions had been imposed by the administration of Joe Biden in 2021 on the ruling party, the Eritrean armed forces and several senior officials, over their role in the war in neighbouring Ethiopia, where Eritrean forces supported Ethiopian troops fighting the local authorities in the northern Tigray region.
Washington is also active in Puntland, the autonomous region of Somalia that is at loggerheads with the government based in Mogadishu (see Fides, 21/9/2026).
Developments in Ethiopia could therefore have repercussions far beyond the country’s borders, involving the African states bordering the Red Sea and, more broadly, the strategic balance of one of the world’s principal maritime corridors.
(L.M.) (Fides News Agency, 23/9/2026)
