AFRICA/NIGER - "Military intervention on part of the CEDEAO/ECOWAS is no bluff, but would be the worst possible answer"

Niamey (Fides News Agency) - "I don't believe it to be a bluff" stated Rahmane Idrissa, a Nigerien researcher at the University of Leiden, with regard to a possible military intervention on part of the Economic Community of West African States (CEDEAO/ECOWAS) in Niger to free President Mohamed Bazoum and overturn the putschist junta that has seized power.
Among the biggest supporters of the CEDEAO/ECOWAS armed intervention is Nigerian President Bola Tinubu. "I by no means believe Tinubu to be a mere instrument of Western politics, as some suspect. At most one could speak of a convergence of perspectives (rather than interests) between Abuja and the Western capitals, particularly Paris and Washington" Idrissa states.
"Tinubu is keen to restore the image of the CEDEAO/ECOWAS, for similarly 'Pan-African' reasons, and undoubtedly as a means to boost Nigeria's prestige" the scholar explains. "However, he spoke his threats prematurely and without taking the time to understand what is happening in Niger, and in the francophone countries in West Africa. As a result, he is now aware that the intervention is not a good idea".
This, Idrissa explains, is because "the influence of Paris and Washington, who are insisting for Bazoum's total restoration, is detrimental. A reintegration is politically inconceivable, especially if it were to reinstate the Parti nigérien pour la démocratie et le socialisme (PNDS-Tarayya), the President's party. The reality truly has changed, of course, through the use of force; but force cannot undo it. The ideal solution would be a return to a Nigerien tradition: putsches that partake in the reinvention and renewal of the political process, like a computer that gets rebooted" Idrissa states.
"The PNDS wouldn't be excluded from said process, but wouldn't conserve the dominant position it has thus far abused", the scholar continues. "I doubt the Niamey junta would turn down an agreement that provided for lifting sanctions in return for the activation of such a political process, with guarantees provided by Nigeria, perhaps through CEDEAO/ECOWAS observers (particularly Nigerian) stationed in Niamey - which would be one way for Tinubu to 'save face' ".
There remains "the obsession with Russia on part of western powers. Despite the pro-Russian sentiment of the nationalist ideologs, Russia is not a significant factor in the Nigerien equation" Idrissa says. The visits made by Salifou Modi (one of the putschist leaders) to Bamako should not give such impression". "The idea of these visits is that of creating the conditions for collective security with Mali (and subsequently Burkina Faso), but in no way to 'wagnerize' Niger" Idrissa claims, referring to the private Russian Wagner military unit which "aids" the putschist juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso. "Modi was already working on this idea at the time of Bazoum, and his visits to Bamako do not necessarily mean he was one of the ideators of the putsch".
"It's too early to say exactly how the putsch started; however, the fact is it has created opportunities that weren't there before. The ideal thing would be the rational exploitation of these opportunities and cooling down the political temperatures, not just in Niamey and Abuja, but in Paris and Washington as well" Idrissa says, concluding: "The ideal rarely happens, but the opposite of said ideal (prolonged sanctions in the best of cases, armed intervention in the worst) is too grim to be acceptable". (L.M.) (Fides News Agency 4/8/2023)

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