AFRICA/SOMALIA - Concerns for the fate of Somalia following the retreat of Ethiopian troops

Wednesday, 14 January 2009

Mogadishu (Agenzia Fides) – The Ethiopian troops are in their final stages of retreat from Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, and have handed over security responsibilities to the weak troops of the Transitional National Government (TNG).
“The ball is now in the court of the Somalis,” said the UN Special Representative for Somalia, however it is feared that the retreat of the 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers could leave a hole in the power over the country, which has been without a stable government since January 1991. The forces disputing over control of Mogadishu and the south-central area of the country are: the Transitional Government (recognized by the international community, but mistrusted by Somalians, who do not forgive them for having reached Mogadishu thanks to the hated Ethiopian troops); the “moderate” Islamic Courts, who signed the Djibouti Accord with the TNG for a sharing of power; the Shabaab, a youth movement (Shabaab means “youth”) linked to the extremist branch of the Islamic Courts; the opposition in exile in Eritrea (that has every interest in removing the rival Ethiopia from Somalia).
All the observers agree on the fact that in spite of their removal of troops, Addis Ababa cannot help but remain interested in the Somalian situation and thus, will remain in one way or another an important player in the Somali chaos.
The evacuation of the main Ethiopian bases in Mogadishu has been followed by an intensification of fighting in the capital; thus, it is feared that there will be clashes between anti-government militias and the TNG. The TNG has, in addition to its own troops, a small contingent sent from the African Union (AMISOM), which is formed by 3,000 men (mainly Ugandan and Burundian soldiers) and that appears to have difficulties. The force is completely “organic” (it still has not reached the predetermined number of 8,000 men) that does not have the necessary materials and guidelines for recruitment that allows it to operate. The AMISOM is also suffering from attacks of Somalian militiamen forced to remain on the defensive. The Burundi press reports that the soldiers of the Burundi contingent have organized protests at the command headquarters, requesting their payment. The soldiers impede their commander from any movement until they are paid their 3,600 dollars in missed pay. A spokesman from the Burundi Army has affirmed that the government only pays their soldiers in Somalia 10 dollars per month.
The clashes between Ethiopian troops and Somali militias have led to 16,000 deaths since January 2007, which is when they intervened in support of the TNG. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 14/1/2008)


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