AFRICA/ZIMBABWE - Mugabe and leaders of his party meet to decide his political and personal future

Harare (Agenzia Fides) - In Zimbabwe political confrontation turns bitter between the Opposition which won a parliament majority and the government of outgoing President Robert Mugabe.
While the MDC Opposition party (Movement for Democratic Change), has said it will lodge a protest against delayed publication of presidential election results, (held on the same day as legislative elections, 29 March), the leadership of the president's party ZANU-PF met to decide participation in the second round of elections. Although no official announcement has been made, the government press leaked the news that neither of the candidates, Mugabe or MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, obtained the necessary quorum for being elected president after the first round. A statement contested by the Opposition which claims instead, on the basis of its own vote count, it obtained more than the 50% plus 1, required to win without a second round.
The ZANU-PF leadership seems determined to hold a second round but at the same time launches signals for possible negotiations. According to the British daily The Guardian, President Mugabe would be willing to cede power in exchange for judicial immunity for crimes committed in the past. If his offer is rejected, members of the presidential entourage told the paper, Mugabe will proclaim a state of emergency and announce new elections within 90 days.
Tension is growing, also with international powers, after the arrest of two journalists American Barry Bearak, correspondent of the New York Times, and British Steven Bevan, who works free-lance. Both are accused of not having obtain from the local authorities accreditation to follow the elections.
A situation of apparent confrontation and confusion which is perhaps partly deliberate on the part of the regime which was warmed of probable electoral defeat. According to The Zimbabwe Independent, the local secret service (Central Intelligence Organization, CIO) warned Mugabe before the vote that he would lose the election. A pre-vote CIO survey had in fact foreseen that Mugabe would obtain at the most 49.2% of the votes. The personalistic nature of the regime emerged when the President's entourage pressed the intelligence chiefs to raise this percentage which was brought up to first to 52.3% and then even to 56%. The paper says the CIO survey is practically identical to one carried out by an expert at the University of Zimbabwe and was probably used to justify recourse to electoral fraud. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 4/4/2008 righe 31 parole 417)