Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Nairobi (Agenzia Fides) - The dramatic situation in Kenya should force the African Union to revise its policy of intervention for African crises. It can no longer look the other way. After Darfur, Zimbabwe, Somalia, Congo, now we have Kenya: the African Union needs an effective policy to resolve these sort of situations which threaten the stability of the entire continent. These were some of the opinion expressed to Fides by Catholics in Kenya who are watching the Summit of African Union heads of state taking place in Addis Ababa (see Fides 31/1/2008) with mixed feelings of hope and scepticism. Hope because the Kenyan crisis is affecting the economies of several countries in the region which are therefore interested in playing an active role in its resolution. Scepticism because too often African governments have prevented the AU from finding a common policy for situations such as those in Darfur and Zimbabwe, because of a series of cross-vetoes.
“To put it clearly: the President of nation A is reluctant to criticise the President of nation B because he is in danger of being brought into question himself” a local Catholic source told Fides. “Unfortunately in most African countries authoritarianism and corruption are the rule rather than an exception. So statesmen of different countries cover up for one another: I mind my own business and you do the same. This makes it difficult for the African Union to reach politically important decisions unless common interests enable it to overcome reticence and complicity”.
In the case of Kenya at stake are the economies of neighbouring countries as well as the stability of an area which is strategic for the whole of the West. A few facts reveal Kenya's important role in the area. No less than 42,6% of Kenya's exports go to other member countries of the Economic Community of East Africa; every day 400 trucks of goods and fuel passed through Kenya on the way to bordering countries. As Fides reported last month (see Fides 9/1/2008) some countries in the area have rationed the sale of fuel which came through Kenyan infrastructures. The countries most affected by the consequences of Kenya's transport paralysis are Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo and Southern Sudan.
Kenya's own economy risks a severe blow if the present political crisis continues. Up to a few weeks ago the growth rate of Kenya's gross national product was 7%, propelled by tourism and exports (including flowers grown in Naivasha, a town in Rift Valley epicentre of the recent violent clashes). The fall in Kenyan tourism (14% of the GNP, in 2007 Kenya welcomed 1.8 million tourists) has damaged that of other African nations, particularly the closest ones like Tanzania and Uganda, which have seen a 30% decrease in the number of tourists.
At the strategic level, if Kenya were to plunge into chaos, there could be a danger of advancing Islam extremism from Somalia to north eastern and coastal areas of Kenya where there is a Somali population which so far has kept out of the clashes. Kenya played a role of mediation between the Somali parties, hosting several Somalia Peace Talks over the years. But if Kenya too were to become a fragile, or worse “loser” country, there would be a serious danger that Somali instability could spread to other parts of East Africa. A danger already mentioned by several US experts (such as Douglas Farah of the Washington Post), who fear losing an important reference point for Western politics in the whole area. It should not be forgotten that in Nairobi the United Nations, various NGOs and many western governments have important logistic structures used for interventions all over east and central Africa. Kenya is the basis for a good part of international information activity for this area: newspapers, new agencies, television networks…as well intelligence services of a number of countries.
The Islamic question gave rise to discussion already during the electoral campaign last year. In August 2007 in Nairobi copies were circulated of an alleged memorandum of agreement between the Raila Odinga presidential candidate and leader of the Orange Democratic Party, and Sheikh Abdullahi Abdi, President of the National Muslim Leaders Forum. In the statement, not recognised by the leaders in question, Odinga, in exchange for the Sheikh's electoral support allegedly promised to create two semiautonomous regions governed by Shariah Islamic law in the two provinces with the largest presence of Muslim citizens (coast and north east). The different Christian confessions in Kenya questioned Odinga on this point, warning that if applied a similar pact would divide the country on religious lines creating a rift like the one in Nigeria, between citizens in the south, Christians, and those in the north, Muslims.
This is why the international community cannot sit and watch. A step in the right direction has been the arrival in Nairobi of UN Secretary General, Ban ki-Moon, who came from the Addis Ababa Summit where he met Kenya's President Kibaki, for talks with the Opposition leader Odinga. Also present in Nairobi, is Ban Ki-Moon predecessor Ghanaian Kofi Annan. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 1/2/2008 righe 67 parole 900) [Next Week see Parts 2 and 3, respectively Monday 4th and Tuesday 5th February]
