AFRICA/SUDAN - A possible conflict between North and South Sudan would cost over $ 100 billion

Khartoum (Agenzia Fides) - A possible new war between North and South Sudan could cause damages around 100 billion dollars, revealed a report released today, 25 November, by Frontier Economics (a consulting firm in economics) together with the ISS (Institute for Security Studies, a South African think tank that deals with security issues relating to Africa), by SID (Society for International Development) and by Aegis Trust campaigns for a sustainable peace in Sudan.
On 9 January to vote will be taken in the referendum on South Sudan's independence. Forecasts indicate that the majority of voters will vote for the secession of the south, where most of the oil resources of the country are concentrated. Several observers fear that the secession of the South could provoke a new civil war. The referendum in January is part of the peace deal signed in Nairobi in 2005 by the Khartoum government with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), which brought an end to a war that lasted over 20 years.
“Are we doing enough to prevent a conflict that could cost over 100 billion dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives?” ask the two editors in the introduction of the report: Kenneth Mpyisi, Director of the ISS Office in Nairobi, and Duncan Okello, SID's Regional Director for East Africa.
There are four scenarios outlined by the two researchers: peace and low, medium and high intensity conflict. In the case of a conflict of high intensity over a ten year period, the economic losses for just Sudan (North and South) would be approximately 116 billion dollars. The repercussions of the conflict would also be felt on neighbouring countries: Ethiopia (which would lose $ 17.7 billion), Kenya (18.3 billion dollars) and Uganda (10.16 billion dollars). But the consequences of war could be felt in other countries such as Egypt (which considers the Nile, which flows into Sudanese territory, a source of life) and Tanzania. There would also eventually be the cost paid by the international community in peacekeeping missions (from 26 to 43 billion dollars, in the case of decades-old conflict with high intensity) and humanitarian aid (6 to 12 billion, also in the prescribed scenario).
The report has deliberately sought to quantify the number of victims of a conflict because “the human tragedy of each death can not be assessed in full by any economic analysis.” The conflict between North and South Sudan has resulted in two million dead and four million displaced. That of Darfur has probably resulted in 300 thousand deaths. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 25/11/2010)