AFRICA/SOMALIA - Significant geopolitical maneuvers taking place as Mogadishu awaits government operation

Monday, 22 March 2010

Mogadishu (Agenzia Fides) – The Somali capital of Mogadishu lives awaiting the announced offensive attack of government troops on the Shebaab militias, considered sympathetic to the international Jihad movement. The offensive is also scheduled to be participated in by the African Union contingent in Somalia (AMISOM), formed by Ugandan and Burundian troops. Another 1,000 Ugandan soldiers recently arrived in Mogadishu to reinforce the African mission, which has about 5,000 men.
The military action has the backing of the United States and the European Union, which have initiated a program to train some of the soldiers from Somalia in Djibouti. According to sources in the American press, the U.S. special forces will also be sent to Somalia in support of the offensive that seeks to regain areas of Mogadishu which are in the hands of Shebaab militias.
A recent report by the UN Security Council, however, casts doubt on the effectiveness of the troops of the government led by Sheikh Sharif. The document states that government militias are undermined by corruption and inefficiency, so much so that soldiers do not receive daily rations of food (which are resold on the black market) and are forced to sell arms and ammunition to Shebaab to survive.
Somalia is also at the center of the complex geopolitical maneuvers of neighboring powers and others outside African. Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Kenya (the latter two countries have Somali minorities living in their territory) seek to avoid the instability in Somalia from extending into their countries, and at the same time are fighting a person-to-person war with Somali militia for control of the country.
According to the Kenyan press, citing a report by the UN Monitoring Group for Somalia based in Isiolo, there are 2,500 Somalis who have received military training from Kenya at the request of President Sharif. Young people were recruited in Somalia (in Juba) and north-eastern Kenya, including Somali refugee camps. It was formed, but then there was a dispute about where to use this militia: the government wants to deploy it to Nairobi, on the border between Somalia and Kenya to prevent the infiltration of Shebaab. However, Somalia and Ethiopia ask that it be sent to Mogadishu in support of the announced government offensive.
Outside powers like the United States, the European Union, and Asian countries like China and India, are aiming to take control of the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, the strategic waterway for world trade and energy supplies in Europe and Asia. Iran and Israel seem to have transferred their tensions into the area. Recently, Israel and Kenya signed a pact against terrorism, while there are rumors of a possible rapprochement between Israel and Somaliland (the northern region of Somalia that has declared itself independent in 1991), which controls the strategic port of Berbera, a former Soviet base, also used by the U.S. during the Cold War. Iran, in turn, would initiate contacts with local governments for access to ports in the area.
Finally, in the background remains the likely presence of vast deposits of oil in large maritime areas ranging from the Somali coast to that of Mozambique, a fact also confirmed by the maps of the seabed of the area developed in their day by the Soviet navy for its submarines. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 22/3/2010)


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