AFRICA/SUDAN - Water and oil, two main players in Southern Sudan's independence

Khartoum (Agenzia Fides) – Water and oil are two of the main principles that would be at stake in the event that Southern Sudan were to become an independent state with the referendum of January 2011.
"The victory of the supporters of independence is a fact affirmed by all," a diplomatic source told Agenzia Fides. "Now even the government in Khartoum seems to have resigned to accept the secession of the southern part of the country."
In light of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in Nairobi in 2005, what is currently established in Southern Sudan is an autonomous administration, which has a wide range of powers. The area's oil resources are divided between the central government in Khartoum and the administration of autonomous Southern Sudan, headquartered in Juba. In the event of secession, however, Khartoum risks losing control of much of its oil revenue. 75% of proven oil reserves are located in Southern Sudan. This oil, in order to be exported, must use an oil pipeline that leads to a terminal located in Port Sudan in the north – a situation which could lead to tensions and incidents.
Thus, the recent statements by Luka Biong, Minister of Presidential Affairs of the Government of Southern Sudan, are important as they show a willingness to extend the existing agreement to share oil resources even if the South gains independence. "Our concern is the economic vitality ... and unity of the north, which, I think, moves us to see if we can continue with the current agreement. It is not in the interest of the South to attend to the economic collapse of the North.”
In the long term, however, the Minister suggested that the agreement could be revised. Geopolitical and economic equation between North and South Sudan are also to include the neighboring states. For example, Kenya could offer the creation of an oil pipeline which carries oil of Sudan to Mombasa, which would become an alternative to Port Sudan.
Another country closely following the story is Egypt, interested in preserving the accords for the management and allocation of Nile waters. Cairo has sought to maintain the unity of Sudan, however according to the Arab press, the Egyptian government seems now to have resigned themselves to accepting the independence of Southern Sudan, especially since, according to experts in law, the possible future State of Southern Sudan would be obliged to respect the agreements on sharing Nile waters, signed by Khartoum. (L.M.) (Agenzia Fides 12/2/2010)