Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Antananarivo (Agenzia Fides) – They are hours of expectancy in Madagascar, where today (September 18), in the capital of Antananarivo, the high commanders of the military gathered with leaders of the regional military formation. “Until now, we haven't heard anything,” sources from Don Bosco Radio, the most important Catholic radio in Madagascar, told Agenzia Fides. “A few days ago we heard of the existence of a group of officials and subofficials that would be preparing a coups to place an end to the power of a military coalition. These are only rumors, unconfirmed, but the decision to hold a meeting of the leaders of the armed forces with the commanders of all the military formations of the various regions, indicates an increasing tension within the military world.”
“We should consider that September 20 marks the end of the ultimatum launched by the movements of the three former Presidents to the President of the High Transitional Authority, Andry Rajoelina, who seems keen on passing the time without response to his opponents.” The 3, Ratsiraka, Zafy, and Ravalomanana, threatened to create parallel institutions if Rajoelina does not return to the negotiation table for an activation of the Maputo Accords (see Fides 14/9/2009).
“In light of the end of the ultimatum, the representatives of civil society organized an encounter of the 4 movements to try to reach an agreement. However, the room for dialogue seems fairly small, as we are now seeing signs of division from within the movements of the 3 Presidents.”
If Zafy insists on organizing public demonstrations, not only in the capital, but also in the Provinces, the movements of the other 2 former Presidents seem hesitant to join these manifestations, for fear that Zafy will take over the opposition against Rajoelina. The supporters of Ravalomanana have announced that they will not participate in the demonstrations held by Zafy, affirming that they will have their own protest demonstrations at a supermarket formerly owned by Ravalomanana, which was burned by demonstrators in these past months.
“The division between the 3 former Presidents comes as no surprise, as their alliance is merely a tactic and each one aspires to power, without any regard for the others. The risk is that of a war among them all. The fact that a part of the same opposition group opposes demonstrations organized by Zafy, and even wants to stop them, could lead to violence.”
The division within the opposition favors Rajoelina, who took over power following the controversial resignation of Ravalomanana, who resigned under pressures from the people and the military. He has also gained important recognition in the UN, who invited him to participate in the UN General Assembly next week in New York. “The invitation to the UN General Assembly seems to show a softening in the international communities' position towards Rajoelina,” Fides sources said. “More than the UN or the European Union, the African Union and the SADC are the ones who refuse Rajoelina's government. This is because of the revolt of the people who imposed Ravalomanana's resignation creates a dangerous precedent for other African leaders, who fear having to affront their own popular revolts.” Although in the various African nations the form of democracy is respected, oftentimes it occurs that the President risks remaining in power his entire life, thanks to the corruption and pressures of all kinds on the voters. “In Madagascar, Ravalomanana was held accounted for by a large part of the population for conflict of interests. He was first a businessman, who used political power to eliminate competitors. A simple example can explain the concept. Before the fall of the ex-President, there was only one brand of butter, the one owned by his company. Now, there are dozens of different brands,” our source concluded. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 18/9/2009)
