Information service of the Pontifical Mission Societies since 1927
Harare (Agenzia Fides) - South Africa’s President, Thabo Mbeki, arrived today (May 9) in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital in efforts to re-launch the negotiation talks between President Robert Mugabe and the opposition, led by the head of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai. Mbeki was given the responsibility by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of mediating the crisis that has broken out as a result of the presidential and parliamentary elections that were held March 29.
While the opposition won the majority victory in Parliament (although it was submitted to verification tests in various electoral sectors), a second round is in the works, between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, after which the Electoral Commission of Zimbabwe issued results on May 2, a month later, of the first round of presidential elections (47.9% for Tsvangirai vs. 43.2% for Mugabe). As the results have been rejected by the opposition, they are still indecisive as to whether they will run in the second round, thus leaving the victory to the outgoing President.
If Mugabe is granted another term, he will not have it easy, as the opposition controls Parliament. “There is no way that Mugabe will be able to govern when his party is the minority in Parliament. He will be in his office, but he will not be able to govern effectively in this situation. His government will not be able to work,” said Eldred Masunungure, professor of Political Science at the University of Zimbabwe, in a conference at the University of Bulawayo. He also believes that in this case, it is highly probable that Parliament is dissolved and new elections are held.
Tsvangirai, who still claims to have won the Presidency in the first round-capturing the absolute majority of the votes-could in the end decide to participate in the second runoff. According to analysis published in the “Zimbabwe Independent,” Mugabe would have very little chances of winning (“he will have to climb a mountain,” the periodical said) because the other contenders for presidency, such as former Finance Minister Simba Makoni, would make their votes go towards Tsvangirai. That is, if the elections are not tampered with, as the opposition has mentioned. The correct manner of going about the second round is probably one of the main themes in the conversations between Mbeki and Mugabe. Mbeki, who has been accused of having maintained an all-too-friendly relationship with Mugabe, could have experienced a change in his stance at Tsvangirai’s request that Mbeki be substituted in his work in continuing mediation efforts. Tsvangirai will not meet with the South African President because he is currently outside the country for security reasons.
In the meantime, Zimbabwean authorities and the opposition are blaming one another for the violence that continues to occur in various parts of the country. (LM) (Agenzia Fides 9/5/2008; righe 36, parole 461)
