AFRICA/KENYA - Geo-political consequences of the Kenyan crisis are most worrisome for neighbouring countries

Wednesday, 20 February 2008

Nairobi (Agenzia Fides) - Negative consequences continue to increase due to the Kenyan crisis, taking their toll on the African nations of Burundi, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania, and southern Sudan. In addition to the difficulties with the supplies, that must pass through the port of Mombasa, as it is the only reliable one in the area, in order to reach the countries who do not border the sea (see Fides 9/1/2008), the countries in the region are now examining the impact that the Kenyan situation is having on their political welfare.
The mass exodus of Somalians to Kenya is worrisome, as Kenya is considered their only sure refuge in the area, and Nairobi has for decades been the site of peace signings among the various Somalian factions. Losing the reference point that Kenya embodied implies post-poning the solution to the civil war in Somalia.
Another country that could be negatively influenced by the Kenyan crisis is Uganda, a nation that is also trying to face an ethnic division between the north and south. Experts in Kampala have noted that in south Uganda, opposition leader Raila Odinga’s possible rise to power in Nairobi is feared. Their fear arises because he is a member of the Luo tribe and his rise to power could bring into play the support of the Luo settlements in south Sudan and north Uganda, creating a kind of trans-national alliance among the Luo that could place in jeopardy the stability of the area. This interpretation of the situation may seem exaggerated, however, oftentimes in politics, perceptions have more say than reality, when it comes to provoking tragedies.
On an economic level, the decision of the national airline in Kenya to cancel all flights between Nairobi and Paris, due to an extreme decrease in reservations, also has influenced the flights to the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. The Nairobi airport is, in fact, an important stop (the so-called “hub”) on flights from Europe to other African destinations, especially in central Africa. The cancelling of flights is also a sign of relapse in the Kenyan tourism industry, one of the most important industries in the national economy. Since the beginning of February, the hotels along the Kenyan coast, with a capacity of 34,000, have only received 1900 guests.
On a political level, negotiations between the majority and the opposition continue in hopes of finding a solution to the Kenyan crisis (see Fides 15/2/2008). The possibility of a treaty appears to be difficult, as neither one of the two sides seems willing to cede in any manner. In addition to reasons of personal prestige and pride, there are other relative considerations to be made on an electoral level, that taken to an extreme, would not accept “concessions” even coming from leaders themselves.
Within this backdrop, there are the voices that cry out for respect for the truth and for justice. In the message issued by Cardinal John Njue, Archbishop of Nairobi, and read in all the parishes of the Archdiocese, there was a strong appeal for respect for others. “Our ethnic origin is a gift from God, who has given us the beauty of diversity. We are like a mosaic in God’s Crown. Our brothers who are refugees, those who have lost their lives and properties, are innocent blood that cries to God as in the times of Cain and Abel. To alleviate the suffering of the poor, we should give food to the hungry, build Christian communities, and uphold the values of honesty, trust, forgiveness, and above all, love.” (LM)(Agenzia Fides 20/2/2008 righe 43, parole 590)


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